(Alexandria, V.A.) Convergence Founder Mike Shields analyzes recent GOP voter turnout data and asserts that there is no better time for Republicans to run for office than in 2024. Read the full opinion editorial below.
The changing Republican electorate could upend this basic rule of politics
By Mike Shields
CNN
A proverb often attributed to baseball legend Yogi Berra is, “It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” And yet, the entire industry of politics is built around trying to do just that.
Fortunately, Republicans now have sophisticated data tools to help guide us in making extremely educated guesses about what is to come. But even when data points us in a clear direction, we sometimes don’t want to believe what we are seeing.
Case in point, many still believe an old theory that Republicans fare better in midterm elections when voter turnout is traditionally lower, and that Democrats fare better in presidential election years when voter turnout is traditionally higher.
Yet recent elections suggest a new trend is emerging, and we need to pay attention to it.
